This is semi-cross posted on facebook, and a couple of you have already heard me sound off on this, but bear with me because I have refined the number a bit.
Recently I watched an interesting BBC documentary on science of attraction, where they brought together a bunch of psychologists, anthropologist, etc to design a program for predicting what people find attractive. The factored in compatibility of interest, similarity of features, and each researcher had their pet theories of what was going on in the study participants head. They were all wrong.
Overwhelmingly they found that initial impression was set by one thing only and it was different for the sexes.
For men: Waist to hip ratio.
For Women: Height.
The other factors had a contribution to the long rating of their opposites, but generally an initial opinion was set, and didn't vary by more then 10%+/- after that.
The part that is relevant for me is generally women are looking for men that are ~5" taller than them and 3-4 years older. Sadly... statistices does not back up the point in having hope.
You see, Bozeman has ~30,000 people according to the city manager. Using the last last census 23% are between 25-44. With an average martial rate of 44.9% (we'll call it 45%) leaving 3795 single people, of whom ~52.6% are men, leaving 1838 possible single women, cut out the 15% smokers and the 10% of the population with serious pet allergies 1405 is starting to look pretty bleak.
If we also rule out those that the NIMH classifies as having a "serious" mental health issue which is apparently 5% of the female population
That leave 1335 potential ladies to meet.
If we are generous and include the women who are an inch shorter then I am (52.4%) of thee population then there are 699 single women meeting the very *minimum* standards, not factoring for common interests or anything similar.
That is a 2.5% chance. That is the optimistic number.
I'm not going to calculate the what the "optimal" height and age match is because I would probably make me want to crawl under the covers and never leave again.